Bitcoin surged over 2.5% to trade near $61,542 on Wednesday, propelled by a sharp drop in oil prices and weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data. The catalyst: significant diplomatic progress in indirect U.S.-Iran negotiations, which sent crude prices tumbling to levels not seen in more than four months.
According to Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, U.S. and Iranian negotiators concluded talks in Doha with “positive progress,” mediated by Qatar and Pakistan. Both sides agreed to resume negotiations on July 18, after the funeral of former supreme leader Ali Khamenei. President Donald Trump had earlier signaled that the talks were “going well,” boosting investor confidence even before the official confirmation.
Oil markets reacted swiftly. West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $67.34 per barrel—slipping below $67.50 for the first time in 125 days—while Brent retreated to $70.39. The move extended oil’s decline from above $100 in May and broke through several technical support levels. Gasoline prices have also dropped roughly 70 cents over the past month, fueling expectations that easing geopolitical risks will continue to weigh on energy costs.
The cryptocurrency’s advance was further supported by lackluster U.S. labor data. The economy added only 57,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, far below the 115,000 forecast, while May’s number was revised lower by 43,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, below projections, signaling a cooling labor market. This dramatically reduced expectations of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year, boosting appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin.
On the technical front, Bitcoin now eyes a pivotal resistance near $62,500, where a multi-week descending trendline converges with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the June 15 high to the July 1 low. A breakout above that level could signal the end of the corrective phase, while failure to hold could leave the recent downtrend intact.
Adding context, Rabobank had just hours earlier warned of elevated risks to global oil markets from tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and ambiguities in the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding. Analysts noted that any disruption to the chokepoint—which handles 20% of world oil consumption—could spike prices sharply. The Doha breakthrough, while not a final deal, provides a crucial de-escalation window and reduces that risk premium, at least temporarily.
