Tech Stocks and Bitcoin Rally as AI Supercycle Optimism Returns Ahead of Fed Minutes

2 hour ago 2 sources positive

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin's thin-volume breakout above $63,000 faces a test from potentially hawkish Fed minutes.
  • Crypto stocks' rally mirrors AI optimism, but earnings reality may decouple them.
  • Lower oil prices could structurally support Bitcoin by easing macro headwinds.

U.S. equity futures jumped on Monday, with the Nasdaq 100 leading a broad tech recovery following a late-June chip selloff. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.4% and Dow futures edged up 0.1%. The bounce comes after a weak jobs report and easing inflation expectations rekindled risk appetite, pushing Bitcoin above $63,000 for the first time in two weeks and lifting crypto-related stocks sharply.

JPMorgan strategists raised their S&P 500 target, explicitly citing the AI supercycle as a key driver for the second half of 2026. Baird strategist Ross Mayfield echoed the optimism, pointing to strong earnings and liquidity as fuel that could carry the bull market into 2027. Memory and storage stocks like Western Digital (+4.5%) and Micron Technology (+2.3%) rebounded, while Taiwan’s Foxconn reported a 40% surge in Q2 revenue, reinforcing confidence in the tech supply chain.

Cryptocurrency markets mirrored the risk-on mood. Bitcoin’s rally above $63,000 propelled names like Strategy (MSTR) up 5%, and Coinbase, Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, and HIVE Digital each gained more than 3%. The move was supported by thin holiday volumes and the soft macro data.

All eyes now turn to Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes, the first chaired by new Fed head Kevin Warsh. Warsh has reaffirmed the 2% inflation target, a signal markets read as hawkish. ING analyst Chris Turner warned the minutes will likely deliver a hawkish message, with some members possibly viewing a rate hike as the next step.

In other market-moving news, OPEC+ agreed to raise output by about 188,000 barrels per day in August, pushing West Texas Intermediate crude below $69 a barrel. Lower energy prices could ease inflation pressures. Tesla gained 2% after expanding its Robotaxi service to Miami using Full Self-Driving Model Y vehicles, hot on the heels of a record 480,126 Q2 deliveries. SpaceX shares rose ahead of its Nasdaq 100 inclusion on Tuesday, and South Korea’s SK Hynix is eyeing a potential $29 billion U.S. listing.

Previously on the topic:
Jul 1, 2026, 8:38 p.m.
Fed Chair Warsh Says Inflation Risks Eased, Markets Pull Back
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