Bitcoin's recent price recovery from last week's low of around $57,700 to near $63,000 may be more of a bear-market bounce than the start of a sustained uptrend, according to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. The firm highlights that while demand metrics have improved and July seasonality favors gains, key market structure indicators remain in bearish territory.
The 10% rebound saw Bitcoin reclaim the $60,000 level as support, aided by historical monthly patterns. "Over the past ten years, July has been one of Bitcoin's more reliably positive months, closing higher in most years shown. The effect is pronounced in down-cycles: in the bear-market years of 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin rallied roughly +20% and +17% in July even as the broader trend stayed weak," said Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's head of research. This seasonality, combined with the bounce off a bear-market low, skews near-term risk toward further upside, but it does not confirm a trend reversal.
Demand is showing signs of life. CryptoQuant's 30-day total Bitcoin demand measure, which aggregates spot and perpetual futures activity, has recovered from its steepest contraction since 2022. After a drop of around 650,000 BTC in early June, the metric is now close to neutral. Speculative futures demand has turned slightly positive, and spot demand is contracting at its slowest pace since mid-May. However, Moreno emphasized that a move back into positive territory is needed to confirm the demand engine is re-igniting.
U.S. investor appetite has also stabilized. The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks spot demand on the U.S. exchange, rebounded from deeply negative levels in early June to -0.062 as Bitcoin climbed. This suggests selling pressure has eased and institutional interest may be firming. Additionally, traders' unrealized profit margin fell below -24% in early June—well beneath CryptoQuant's -12% undervaluation threshold—indicating that short-term holder capitulation may have formed a local floor and given the rebound room to extend.
Despite these positive signals, the broader picture remains cautious. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index, which blends on-chain, market, and valuation metrics, sits at 20, deep within bearish territory and far below the 60 level the firm says is necessary for a sustainable rally. Until demand moves decisively positive and this index recovers, the current price advance is best viewed as a tactical bear-market recovery rather than the start of a new bull cycle. The burden of proof rests on buyers to convert improving demand into a durable trend change.
