Crude oil prices have surged dramatically as the geopolitical crisis between the United States and Iran intensifies, with analysts warning that the rally may have significant implications for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude broke through the key resistance level of $85.00—a former strong support zone from March and April—accelerating its active intermediate impulse wave (3) toward the next resistance level at $91.25, which had previously reversed prices twice in June.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed to $96.16, up 37% from its June low, while WTI approached the psychological level of $90 a barrel. The escalation followed fresh threats from President Trump, who warned of further strikes against Iran and even hinted at targeting Iranian bridges and power plants if ships in the Strait of Hormuz were attacked. Iran, in turn, cautioned that any assault on its critical infrastructure would prompt retaliatory strikes, referencing a recent bombing of a Kuwaiti power plant and desalination facility.
The turmoil extends to Yemen’s Ansar Allah movement, which continued its threat to obstruct the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, further disrupting maritime oil shipments. Professor John Mearsheimer cautioned that the energy market faces mounting pressure, with Iran possibly targeting UAE’s Fujairah port. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs suggested that oil could climb as high as $120 a barrel given low inventories and strained supply-demand dynamics.
From a technical perspective, Brent has jumped above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average and the lower boundary of the Murrey Math Lines trading range, with the Relative Strength Index pointing to continued bullish momentum toward the $100 major S/R pivot level. However, any sign of ceasefire negotiations or diplomatic progress could trigger a sharp reversal.
For the crypto market, this oil spike heightens inflation risks, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain a tighter monetary stance. Such an environment typically dampens appetite for speculative assets like Bitcoin and altcoins, making a negative impact on cryptocurrency prices likely in the near term unless geopolitical tensions ease swiftly.
