The price of XRP has entered a heavily oversold territory, sparking intense debate among analysts over whether a long-term bottom has been established. The token is currently trading near $1, marking a 72% decline from its all-time high and a two-year low touched last month. Notably, the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has plunged to levels more oversold than during the 2020 COVID crash, a reading some traders interpret as a potential precursor to a parabolic surge.
However, technical charts tell a more cautious story. On the daily timeframe, XRP remains trapped within a descending channel and below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The recent bounce from the $1.02–$1.04 demand zone has been insufficient to shift bearish momentum, with the asset still facing formidable resistance between $1.24 and $1.28, where the moving averages converge. A failure to reclaim this zone keeps the door open for further declines, and a decisive break below $1.02–$1.04 could expose the broader demand area around $0.89.
The 4-hour chart highlights a breakdown below an ascending trendline, followed by a swift rebound from the $1.02–$1.04 region. XRP is now retesting the $1.08–$1.09 resistance, a former support level that turned into resistance after the breakdown. A rejection here would increase the probability of another test of the $1.02–$1.04 demand zone, while a clean reclaim of $1.08–$1.09 would improve the short-term outlook and potentially open a recovery path toward $1.16–$1.18.
In parallel, some analysts point to a falling wedge pattern on the weekly chart, with the monthly RSI at historic extremes, suggesting a powerful reversal could propel XRP to targets at $1.40, $1.90, $3.40, and even a new all-time high of $5. Others, however, caution that a final leg down to $0.80 may be needed before such a recovery can materialize. The current price action underscores the delicate balance between a deeply oversold asset and a pervasive bearish structure, making the coming days critical for XRP’s trajectory.
