SanDisk is set to report fiscal fourth-quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday, August 5, placing the company at the centre of a critical test for the ongoing NAND memory shortage. Wall Street expectations sit well above management’s own guidance, with consensus forecasts calling for revenue of approximately $8.42 billion and adjusted earnings of around $34.67 per share. That compares to the company’s forecast of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion in revenue and $30 to $33 in adjusted earnings per share.
The options market is pricing in an abnormal reaction. Weekly contracts expiring August 7 imply a post-earnings move of roughly 16%, which would equate to a swing of about $230 in either direction based on Tuesday’s closing price of $1,437.67. Bloomberg-derived data had earlier pointed to a 12% move, but even the lower estimate is above the stock’s average 8.75% reaction over the previous four quarters. Shares had already rallied 11.6% during Tuesday’s session, adding to the risk of a sharp reversal if results fall short.
SanDisk’s previous quarter underscored how tight supply and datacentre demand can supercharge a NAND producer, with revenue surging 251% year-over-year to $5.95 billion and adjusted gross margin reaching 78.4%. Datacentre revenue alone climbed 645% year-over-year. The company also signed five New Business Model agreements—multi-year customer deals with financial commitments designed to smooth pricing and revenue volatility historically associated with memory booms and busts.
Investors will now focus on whether the current cycle is structurally more profitable than in the past. Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $2,200 from $1,200 in early July, citing sustained NAND tightness, while Morgan Stanley described demand as “unequivocally strong and durable.” Sell-side analysts remain bullish, with the average 23-analyst target near $2,218, though the 500% year-to-date rally has compressed the implied upside. The real test will be fiscal 2027 guidance around contract pricing, enterprise SSD demand and margins—details that will determine if SanDisk’s earnings floor has risen permanently or if this is merely a cyclical peak.
