Gold prices rallied sharply on Thursday, reaching approximately $4,255 per ounce during the Asian session — the highest level in six weeks. The precious metal recorded its strongest daily gain since February, driven by renewed optimism over US-Iran negotiations that eased inflation concerns and lowered expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest rate increases.
Diplomatic progress drove the breakout. Iran announced that an agreement with Oman on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz was being finalized, and Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei noted that risks from the United States and Israel still remained. US President Donald Trump stated that “a deal could be reached,” while Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reported that negotiations had advanced. This geopolitical thaw reduced crude oil prices, softening inflation fears and prompting traders to scale back forecasts for aggressive Fed tightening.
Fed policy expectations shifted. Market pricing now points to fewer rate hikes than previously anticipated, providing additional support for non-yielding assets like gold. Attention has turned to the upcoming US July Nonfarm Payrolls report, with economists forecasting an increase of about 80,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. A weaker reading could reinforce expectations of a less restrictive Fed, while a stronger report might strengthen the US dollar. The Dollar Index traded near 99.70, aiding dollar-denominated commodities.
Gold’s market value jumped by roughly $1.3 trillion to around $30 trillion. The metal has gained more than 24% over the past year from near $3,376 an ounce in August 2025. Independent analyst EGRAG CRYPTO highlighted a technical breakout, suggesting that reclaiming the 21-day exponential moving average could push prices toward $4,800, while failure might lead first to $3,900 and then the $3,455 gap.
