Bitcoin Surges Past $65,000 as Weak US Jobs Data Bolsters Fed Rate-Hold Bets

2 hour ago 5 sources positive

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin's correlation with rate expectations remains primary driver, overshadowing growth-scare risks for now.
  • ETF inflows and dollar weakness are key confirmatory signals after today's rate-cut repricing.
  • Watch for reversal if recession fears surface; Bitcoin's safe-haven narrative remains untested.

Bitcoin vaulted back above $65,000 on Friday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a surprise decline of 23,000 in July payrolls, drastically missing the consensus forecast of an 83,000 gain. The data lifted risk appetite and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% in September.

Ahead of the official release, Bitcoin had wavered near $64,000, with the ADP private payrolls figure showing a 53% drop in hiring — only 44,000 jobs versus a revised 95,000 in June. The weak employment backdrop had traders weighing whether the looming payrolls number would catalyze a relief rally or trigger a growth scare capable of breaking the $64,000 support.

When the government’s report hit at 8:30 a.m. ET, showing a contraction in payrolls alongside an unexpected dip in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, markets interpreted the miss as capping the case for further tightening. Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.2%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, and Dow futures gained 160 points. Bitcoin followed, breaking out of its narrow 24‑hour range to reclaim $65,000 and briefly trade higher.

The move echoed the pattern observed after June’s soft jobs report, when falling short‑term yields, a weaker dollar, and ETF inflows had supported a Bitcoin rebound. This time, the swift upswing underscored how deeply the crypto market is tethered to macro‑rate expectations.

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