Nebius Group (NBIS) is under fresh pressure ahead of its Q2 2026 earnings report on August 12, after DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria lowered his price target from $250 to $175, maintaining a Neutral rating. The cut follows a site visit to the company’s Vineland, New Jersey data center, where construction delays appear likely to prevent the facility from delivering 328 MW of active power by year-end. Luria warned that the delays could challenge Nebius’ position as a leading “neocloud” and raise doubts about its ability to convert contracted power into revenue.
The company needs to grow connected power capacity from roughly 170 MW at end‑2025 to between 800 and 1,000 MW by end‑2026, while targeting a revenue run‑rate jump from $1.9 billion as of March 2026 to $7–9 billion by December. “We fear that the narrative on Nebius could change and the ability to convert contracted power to connected power and then into active power (revenue) may be put into question,” Luria wrote.
Wall Street still expects explosive top‑line growth for Q2: consensus revenue of around $573–$575 million, up about 442% year‑over‑year, driven by AI‑cloud demand. The company is forecast to report a wider loss of $0.72 per share, reflecting heavy capital spending. Nebius recently raised its 2026 capex target to $20–25 billion, backed by a $46 billion multi‑year contract backlog including deals with Meta and Microsoft, and a $9 billion cash position bolstered by convertible notes and an Nvidia equity investment. However, short interest has climbed to 27%, and prominent investor Michael Burry has disclosed a short position, citing leverage and high spending needs.
Options pricing suggests a potential 13% stock swing on earnings. The stock has retreated about 16% in the past week, from a June peak near $300 to around $191, and now sits above the revised DA Davidson target. Risks include any sign of slower backlog conversion, weaker full‑year guidance, or additional equity/debt financing that would validate bearish concerns.
