Bitcoin may be approaching the late stages of its long-term downtrend, according to separate technical and on-chain analyses published in mid-August 2026. The assessments point to oversold conditions and a reappearing historical cost-basis signal that has preceded major market bottoms in previous cycles.
Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies and a certified market technician, said on the Coinage program that Bitcoin’s long-term downtrend has reached an exhaustion point and that a lasting bottom may be forming. Stockton noted that monthly charts show a clear oversold condition, while long-term momentum indicators have begun turning upward. She added that price action near historically significant support levels is strengthening market psychology and improving Bitcoin’s chances of forming a durable bottom compared with other assets such as gold. Stockton also cautioned that gold-Bitcoin correlations are cyclical and should not be used as a direct buy or sell signal.
In a separate analysis, the widely followed analyst known as Doctor Profit highlighted an on-chain metric in which the average cost basis of short-term holders has fallen below the average cost basis of investors who have held Bitcoin for one to two years. Short-term holders are usually defined as investors who acquired Bitcoin within the previous 155 days. The configuration indicates that newer entrants are selling at a loss while longer-term investors absorb the supply. Doctor Profit said the same pattern appeared in 2015, 2019 and 2022, and has now emerged for the fourth time with Bitcoin trading below the cost basis of both groups.
Historical context shows that this signal has not led to immediate rebounds. In 2015 Bitcoin consolidated between roughly $200 and $300 for several months before rallying. In 2019 the market traded sideways for about five months after the signal appeared, and the 2022 case was followed by a prolonged accumulation phase that lasted into early 2023. The current market appears to be mirroring those periods, with Bitcoin moving sideways and entering what Doctor Profit describes as a phase of long-term accumulation.
Both analyses suggest that while a bottom may be near, the recovery could be slow and volatile. The signal is not a precise timing tool, and macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments and broader market sentiment may still influence the depth and duration of any bottoming process.
