Bitcoin's market outlook has brightened as multiple early bull signals align with a historically significant on-chain metric, prompting analysts to suggest the bottom of the current bear cycle may already be in or very close. The cryptocurrency has triggered a second early bull signal according to CryptoQuant, a pattern often seen during the late stages of market corrections when selling pressure eases and long-term investors begin to accumulate.
Compounding this optimism, popular trader and analyst Doctor Profit pointed to a crossover in Bitcoin's realized price by age, a metric he describes as a historic indicator for market bottoms. The crossover occurs when the average cost basis for coins held 3-6 months (the pink line) drops below that of coins held 1-2 years (the blue line) — a phenomenon that signals newer buyers capitulating and transferring supply to stronger, longer-term holders. This pattern has preceded major bottom-formation phases in 2015, 2019 and 2022. Currently, Bitcoin is trading below both groups' average cost basis, and the crossover has appeared for the fourth time in Bitcoin's history.
Doctor Profit, who had previously anticipated a bottom as low as $40,000, now believes the market is stabilizing in an accumulation zone and that any further decline will likely be limited to around $54,000. He has been actively accumulating BTC at these levels. Despite the promising signals, both CryptoQuant and Doctor Profit caution that the crossover does not guarantee an immediate reversal; historically, months of sideways movement have followed while the market builds a base.
Investors are now watching for further confirmation from price action, on-chain activity, ETF flows, and macroeconomic conditions. If additional bullish indicators emerge, confidence in Bitcoin entering a sustained recovery phase could strengthen, potentially lifting the broader crypto market out of its prolonged weakness that began after the October 2025 crash.
