Bitcoin’s near-term market structure has become notably more fragile after a substantial wall of buy orders that formed beneath the price in June has begun to drain, according to on-chain analytics provider Glassnode. The remaining support is now described as a much thinner floor, leaving the cryptocurrency exposed to greater potential volatility.
Glassnode noted that price is currently sandwiched between the Median Realized Price at $63,000 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $68,700. The analytics firm also flagged $58,500 as a level below the current trading range. Bitcoin has traded within this cost-basis pocket for nearly three months. Meanwhile, the market has recorded its lowest spot volume since 2019, and exchange activity has continued to decline; figures excluding Binance are approaching bear-market lows last seen in 2023.
Supply in profit is near territory associated with previous bear-market floors, and Glassnode’s Seller Exhaustion Constant has reached a cycle low. The Adjusted SOPR metric has repeatedly failed to hold above 1.0 since the October peak, with nine recovery attempts ending around break-even. ETF flows have turned positive since late July, but inflows remain small compared with earlier accumulation periods. The Exchange Net Position Change remains in inflow territory, meaning coins are still moving toward exchanges, although the pace has slowed from early June.
Separately, analyst Darfost reported that apparent demand has improved sharply from -272,000 BTC to -32,000 BTC, but it remains negative and below a level considered strong. Similar patterns appeared in February and May before demand weakened again. Darfost linked the improvement partly to lower average issuance following a hashrate decline. Apparent demand compares new BTC issuance with supply inactive for more than one year, and current data still show accumulation is not yet absorbing newly created Bitcoin supply.
The thinning support and persistently negative demand suggest traders should monitor key levels closely, as a decisive move below support could trigger further selling pressure, while stabilization could restore confidence.
