Market attention has shifted away from the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding deadline, which traders now treat as a procedural step rather than a decisive market catalyst. Geopolitical risk premiums have fallen, and participants are refocusing on a packed US macroeconomic calendar, including the Consumer Price Index report, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, and non-farm payrolls.
The Federal Reserve's minutes due Wednesday are expected to provide deeper insight into the FOMC's internal debate over interest-rate policy. The central bank has kept rates in the 5.25%–5.50% range since July 2023, and its latest projections pointed to three rate cuts by the end of 2025. Sticky inflation readings and resilient labor data have made the timeline for easing less certain, leaving investors eager for fresh signals.
Analysts will look for discussion of recent inflation pressures in services and shelter costs, and whether officials view them as temporary or persistent. The minutes may also offer clues on when the Fed could slow or end its balance-sheet runoff, known as quantitative tightening. A more hawkish tone could push Treasury yields higher and pressure risk assets, while a dovish surprise could support equities and crypto markets.
For traders, risk management is now tied more to economic data than geopolitical headlines. An unexpected escalation involving Iran could still trigger sharp reactions, but the baseline scenario is that US data and Federal Reserve policy will dominate near-term price action.
