Bitcoin climbed back to the $65,000 level on August 19 for the first time since August 10, recovering alongside US equities after geopolitical concerns around the Strait of Hormuz eased. The move followed a cautious session on August 18, when BTC traded at $64,265.23, down 0.34%, testing the 20-day exponential moving average and a descending trendline that has capped rallies since May. Analysts note Bitcoin remains inside a broad range between roughly $58,000 and $68,700 that has held since early June.
Institutional demand showed renewed strength. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $300 million in net inflows on Monday, the strongest single day since May 5, according to SoSoValue. A separate report put Monday inflows at $137.32 million, coming after a rough week that saw $389.71 million in net outflows. In derivatives, Bitcoin's 24-hour liquidations reached $75.04 million, with $70.57 million of that from short sellers getting squeezed as price rebounded.
VanEck researchers including Patrick Bush and Matthew Sigel said 8 of 12 signals in their Bitcoin Capitulation Check are now active, with all 12 signals having entered their capitulation zone at some point over the past three months. They suggest Bitcoin is nearing or currently in an accumulation phase. Analyst Aksel Kibar flagged a potential reverse head-and-shoulders pattern around $62,300, with a $76,000 upside target if the rebound holds and a $53,000 downside target if it fails. Trader Ted Pillows added that a four-hour close above $65,000 could push BTC to $68,000.
Long-term holder behavior remains a watchpoint: holders shed roughly 356,000 BTC over 30 days, pushing their share of circulating supply below 60% for the first time in months. Bitcoin remains about 48% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,300, with the 50-month exponential moving average near $65,827 acting as near-term resistance. Macro markets also contributed to the risk-on tone, with the S&P 500 rebounding, WTI crude down about 1% near $84 per barrel, and US 30-year yields climbing to 5.34%, their highest since January 2007. BNY Mellon analyst Geoff Yu said investors are "demanding more compensation for inflation risk."
