Grayscale has signaled that Bitcoin may have established a long-term bottom, pointing to a sharp three-day rebound and historical cycle data. Bitcoin gained more than 23% in three days, adding roughly $275 billion to its market capitalization and closing near $78,300 on Friday.
According to the asset manager, Bitcoin historically bottoms about 80% below its cycle peak, but the current drawdown from the latest record high is only about 50%. Grayscale noted that a sustained rebound could indicate investors are returning to accumulation, though macro conditions, liquidity and sentiment remain key risks.
On Aug. 22, Bitcoin traded near $77,282, slightly above its 50-week moving average of about $77,234, according to TradingView data. The recovery also drove significant exchange inflows: short-term holders moved approximately 53,000 BTC to exchanges, including 17,800 BTC sent to Binance, the largest such inflow since February 2026. Darkfost reported that all of the Binance inflows came from short-term holders who had bought Bitcoin less than one day earlier, while long-term holders sent no BTC to Binance, describing the activity as speculative and non-structural.
Bitfinex separately noted that funding rates spiked during the breakout before quickly cooling to baseline, a pattern it said is unusual for leverage-driven rallies. Meanwhile, Strategy and Michael Saylor returned to an unrealized profit of $1.87 billion on their Bitcoin holdings after being underwater since May 27.
Grayscale cautioned that risks remain, but the latest rally may indicate a more durable bottom for Bitcoin.
