Crypto markets enter a pivotal stretch as the fourth week of August brings a compact but high-impact set of US macro releases and central bank communications. The main focus for Bitcoin traders is Wednesday's July core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index—the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge—alongside the second estimate of second-quarter US GDP.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the PCE report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists cited by Kiplinger expect core PCE to rise slightly month over month and 3.2% annually, still above the Fed's 2% target. A hotter reading could strengthen expectations that US rates remain elevated or even rise again, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher. A cooler print would likely ease pressure on the Fed and could support risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Wednesday's GDP revision will also be closely watched. The advance estimate showed annualized Q2 growth of just 1.5%, down from 2.1% in Q1. A stronger revision could reinforce confidence in US economic momentum; a downward revision could raise slowdown concerns and trigger safe-haven flows.
The week's other major event is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday. It comes after the central bank left its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75% in July, though three policymakers dissented in favor of a hike. Long-term yields have climbed, with the 10-year Treasury near 4.73% and the 30-year above 5.2%. Market participants will parse Warsh’s remarks for clues on whether another rate increase remains possible.
The week begins quietly, with August CB consumer confidence and July new home sales on Tuesday unlikely to be major catalysts for crypto. Attention turns decisively to Wednesday's macro data. Bitcoin has rallied from about $64,000 to nearly $80,000 recently before stalling around $77,000. The fresh macro signals could determine whether the rally resumes. In addition, the Bank of Korea will announce its benchmark interest rate decision at 1:00 a.m. UTC on Thursday, and the US Department of Labor will release weekly initial jobless claims later that day, adding further inputs on global liquidity conditions and labor market health.
