Ethereum has reclaimed its $2,300 on-chain cost basis, a level that represents the average acquisition price of all ETH in circulation, but the rally has cooled as traders evaluate the next major test in the $2,722–$2,970 supply zone.
Ethereum jumped roughly 30% over the past week, briefly reaching $2,500 before pulling back. On-chain data shows the move above $2,300 returned the average ETH holder to profit. The level, also known as the realized price, is calculated by dividing the total value of all coins at their last transaction price by total supply. Reclaiming it can reduce panic selling and create a more stable base, although the current pause suggests participants are taking a more cautious approach than in previous bull runs.
Under the surface, demand indicators improved. Analysts noted that Ethereum’s MVRV ratio formed a golden cross above its 160-day moving average on August 19. The number of addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH increased by 1.74%, with 17 new whale addresses appearing during the week. More than 180,764 ETH worth roughly $440 million moved off exchanges, a pattern often interpreted as reduced selling interest.
However, the main obstacle remains the $2,722–$2,970 resistance zone. URPD data suggests 16.70 million ETH were previously bought inside that range, creating a supply wall. A successful breakout could open a path toward the next MVRV pricing band near $5,363. A rejection could send Ethereum back toward realized price support near $2,235.
Technical analysts also highlighted the 200-week moving average. According to analyst The Long Investor, Ethereum has touched this level 11 times over the past five years, and price has historically returned to the moving average after moving below it. The 50-week and 200-week moving averages are converging in the same area, creating a confluence zone that could support a move back toward all-time highs if held.
ETF demand added fuel. US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded their largest inflows since October 2025. Net inflows were $30.85 million on Monday and $71.47 million on Tuesday. After the US Treasury Department said it would double the maximum size of liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated government debt from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, risk appetite increased. Wednesday saw $189.15 million, Thursday $220.77 million, and Friday about $185 million.
The combination of on-chain accumulation, moving-average support, and record ETF inflows gives Ethereum a reasonable setup for higher prices, but the $2,722–$2,970 resistance will determine whether ETH targets $5,363 or retests $2,235.
