Affirm Stock Pops 12% After Blowout Q4 Earnings and Raised Outlook

1 hour ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • Affirm's strong results lift risk sentiment, potentially benefiting high-beta crypto assets in the near term.
  • The Shopify BNPL expansion highlights fintech encroachment on payment markets, a challenge for crypto adoption.
  • Sustained GMV growth above 30% signals consumer strength, reducing immediate recession risks that often hit crypto hardest.

Affirm Holdings shares surged about 12% in premarket trading Friday after the buy-now-pay-later company reported fiscal fourth-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates and issued guidance above consensus forecasts.

Revenue for the period ended June 30, 2026 rose 33% year over year to $1.17 billion, compared with the roughly $1.11 billion analysts had modeled. Gross merchandise volume increased 36% to $14.1 billion, topping the $13.4 billion consensus and extending an 11-quarter streak of GMV growth above 30%.

Transactions grew 41% to 53 million, active consumers rose 21% to 27.8 million, and active merchants climbed more than 50% to 571,000. The Affirm Card remained a standout, with card GMV more than doubling to $2.8 billion and active cardholders up 125% to 5.2 million. GAAP earnings per share reached $4.62, far above the $0.35 estimate, though the result included a roughly $1.45 billion tax benefit from releasing a valuation allowance on deferred tax assets. Excluding that accounting item, management said the core business still produced its most profitable quarter. Full fiscal-year revenue reached $4.26 billion, GMV was $50.2 billion, and reported net income was $1.93 billion.

For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Affirm guided revenue to $1.19 billion to $1.22 billion, above the $1.16 billion consensus, with GMV of $13.7 billion to $14.0 billion. The company also expects full-year GMV above $64 billion, ahead of the roughly $63 billion analysts expected.

Affirm announced a partnership expansion with Shopify to launch Shop Pay Installments in Australia, following a similar UK rollout. CEO Max Levchin called the quarter another period of sustained profitable growth. The company promoted Michael Linford to president and named Pat Suh to lead global markets.

Analysts weighed in after the report: Susquehanna raised its price target to $110 from $105, while Oppenheimer lifted its target to $100 before the print. Morgan Stanley remained equal weight at $80. Shares closed regular trading at $77.49, then jumped to about $86.80 in premarket action.

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