Oil prices edged higher on August 28 even as shipping data showed an increase in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring how geopolitical risk and supply concerns continue to outweigh short-term logistical improvements in global crude markets.
Goldman Sachs estimates combined Gulf exports of crude oil and petroleum products have rebounded to roughly 15 million to 16 million barrels per day, up sharply from the 5 million to 6 million barrels per day recorded in March but still about 7 million to 8 million barrels per day below prewar levels. US officials have put current flows at around 8 million to 10 million barrels per day, while commercial tracking services report lower figures because some tankers are not consistently transmitting identification signals.
The recovery helped ease the most extreme supply fears. Brent traded near $90 a barrel on Friday, heading for a weekly decline after earlier trading close to $95 a barrel amid expectations of tougher US sanctions on Iran. Before the conflict, Hormuz carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, leaving the route central to energy pricing, shipping costs and inflation expectations.
Traders remain focused on underlying supply tightness, production cuts by major exporters and resilient demand from Asia. The market is also pricing in a geopolitical risk premium for potential disruptions, which can keep prices elevated even when real-time flow data improves. Iran has indicated preparations for a broader reopening of the strait, with security official Mohsen Rezaei citing an end to regional conflict as a requirement and discussions with Oman including a potential shipping corridor.
For broader risk assets, the macro signal is significant. Bitcoin has recently recovered toward $80,000 amid stronger ETF demand and shifting sentiment; a durable normalization of Gulf energy flows could remove an inflation and supply-shock headwind, while renewed disruption would likely support oil prices and keep risk premiums elevated.
