Russia’s newly regulated cryptocurrency trading market could process between 3.5 trillion and 4 trillion rubles in its first year, equivalent to roughly $46.43 billion at the exchange rate cited by TASS, according to an Aug. 29 forecast from SberCIB Investment Research. Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov said the annual figure may rise to about 7.5 trillion rubles, or $87.06 billion, by 2029, while 2028 volumes are projected at 4.75 trillion to 5.25 trillion rubles. The forecast is not a guaranteed minimum and should be treated as SberCIB’s projection rather than an official target.
The estimates assume limited migration from existing unregulated activity. Popov said Russian cryptocurrency transactions currently total about 50 billion rubles daily, or roughly 18 trillion rubles annually, based on Finance Ministry data. SberCIB expects approximately 20% of this activity to move onto regulated exchanges during the first year. Existing crypto exchange providers have until July 1, 2027 to register under Russia’s new licensing framework, so the regulated market is unlikely to operate at full capacity immediately after the law takes effect on Sept. 1, 2026.
Under the new framework, both qualified and non-qualified investors will be able to transact through approved intermediaries. Non-qualified investors must pass a knowledge test and face an annual purchase limit of 300,000 rubles, approximately $3,800, per intermediary. Qualified investors must also complete testing but may access any cryptocurrency without the same monetary ceiling. The Bank of Russia has proposed Bitcoin, Ether and Tether’s USDT as eligible assets for organized trading by ordinary investors, citing market capitalization, trading volume and overseas price history. Other cryptocurrencies could remain unavailable through regulated venues unless they satisfy the central bank’s standards.
Sberbank itself plans to launch crypto trading, custody and digital-depository infrastructure by Dec. 1, 2026, although customer eligibility, supported assets, fees and withdrawal terms have not been finalized. The central bank will maintain official registers for approved market participants. No verified market movement in Bitcoin, Ether or USDT was directly attributed to the forecast.
