Avalanche (AVAX) is showing early signs of a higher-timeframe recovery, with analysts focusing on the $7.05 support zone and the $8.30 breakout level as the next key tests before a potential move toward $9.50–$10.00. The token was trading near $7.17, down 3.24% over the previous 24 hours, but the broader technical picture has improved after months of sideways trading between roughly $6 and $7.
According to analyst Honeybear, AVAX has spent the past three months testing the lower boundary of its monthly bullish trend structure before bouncing back toward the $7.30–$7.40 area. The monthly Supertrend setup places key bullish support near $6.29, while larger trend resistance remains around $17.03 and $20.71. Repeatedly defending the $6.20–$6.30 region suggests a base may be forming, though a monthly recovery through $10 would strengthen that outlook and a move above $17 could confirm a longer-term shift.
Shorter-timeframe charts show AVAX recently broke through a descending trendline that had rejected recovery attempts since June. Analysts including Cihan Altcoin caution that a retest of the former trendline near $6.60–$6.80 could occur before continuation. If buyers defend that zone, AVAX may push back toward $7.40–$7.50 and retest the recent high around $8.30. KhonshuArc points to $7.05 as the critical level: holding it keeps the breakout structure intact, while losing it increases the chance of a move toward $6.60–$6.80 or lower support near $6.20.
Institutional activity is also expanding. Bitwise, VanEck and Grayscale now hold more than 5 million AVAX combined, with total holdings around 5.105 million AVAX worth approximately $38.27 million. About 3.49 million AVAX is staked, including roughly 80% of VanEck’s holdings, and combined ETF-related holdings have risen by 34.2% over 13 weeks. This staking participation reduces liquid supply and indicates institutions are becoming more active in the Avalanche network.
From a technical perspective, clearing $8.30 would be an important continuation signal and could open the way toward $9.50–$10.00, with longer-term resistance at $17–$21. A failure to hold $7.05 would weaken the short-term structure and put the $6.60–$6.80 retest zone back in focus, followed by the stronger support near $6.20–$6.30.
