Bitcoin’s market relationships are undergoing a notable shift. Data from Unfolded shows that Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has climbed above 50%, while its link to the Nasdaq has fallen from more than 60% to roughly 33%. At the same time, Santiment data reported by Crypto Briefing indicates that Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities has dropped to its lowest level since the collapse of FTX in November 2022.
The 30-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market fell to as low as -0.299 in December 2025, before recovering to around 0.18 in January 2026. This decoupling represents a departure from much of 2024 and early 2025, when Bitcoin frequently traded in tandem with tech-heavy indices such as the Nasdaq and was widely classified as a risk asset.
The divergence is visible in recent price action. From late August 2025 to early 2026, Bitcoin declined approximately 43%, while the S&P 500 gained about 7% over the same period. Gold, the classic safe-haven asset, surged roughly 51%. According to market participants, the crypto-specific decline reflects ongoing deleveraging following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which introduced new dynamics such as large-scale redemptions and shifting sentiment sensitivity.
For investors, the rising Bitcoin-gold correlation may signal that Bitcoin is increasingly treated as a store of value or inflation hedge, potentially attracting stability-seeking capital. However, correlation is fluid and does not imply causation. Bitcoin remains far more volatile than gold, and the post-ETF deleveraging process suggests the market is still adjusting. The last time Bitcoin’s stock correlation was this low was during the FTX collapse, a period of severe crypto market turmoil, though the current drivers are more tied to ETF flows and market structure than a single systemic failure.
