Bitcoin is struggling to sustain its recent breakout, with price action stalling below $78,000 and warning signs accumulating across multiple timeframes. After an impulsive advance from the mid-$60,000 region, BTC has repeatedly failed to clear the $80,500-$82,500 supply zone, creating a fragile consolidation between roughly $77,000 and $81,000. The inability to absorb overhead supply, combined with repeated upper wicks, suggests buyers are losing momentum and raises the probability of a deeper correction.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin lost the lower boundary of its earlier ascending channel and has been trading within a smaller rising structure around $77,000-$80,000. A break below this pattern would strengthen the case for a move toward the major daily support zone at $72,000-$74,400. Conversely, a decisive reclaim of $79,000-$80,000 could still invalidate the bearish setup, but only a close above $81,440 would fully negate it.
Glassnode reports that Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 is nearing a two-year low, signaling a break from equities even as BTC remains below recent highs. The firm notes that the relationship that shaped much of the recent downtrend is fading. Meanwhile, trader Crypto Patel warns that BTC is below a descending trendline after losing rising support, with a move below $77,000 potentially accelerating declines toward $69,160 and $64,260.
Demand indicators are also signaling weakness. Analyst Darkfost says apparent demand has turned negative again as short-term holders continue to realize profits. However, short-term momentum shows modest improvement: Bitcoin's 14-period RSI is at 47.80, above its average near 40.71, while the MACD histogram is positive at 62.90 and the MACD line remains above the signal line.
The one-week Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap shows significant liquidity concentrated below price through the $74,000-$77,000 region and above around $80,000-$82,000. Given the repeated failures near resistance, the downside liquidity cluster appears increasingly attractive, with a sweep toward the mid-$70,000s and a test of the $72,000-$74,400 support zone looking more plausible unless buyers quickly restore momentum above $80,000.
