Bitcoin’s swift advance from under $65,000 to more than $81,000 within about a week has shifted broad market sentiment from fear to greed, but the rally is now facing a key test. After two rejections near the $81,000 area and a more hawkish tone from new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole gathering, analysts are debating whether the breakout can hold or whether another leg down is likely.
On-chain data from Santiment, highlighted by analyst Ali Martinez, shows that whale wallets accumulated roughly $3 billion in bitcoin over the past week, adding more than 39,150 BTC in seven days. Spot ETF buyers also contributed, with over $920 million flowing into bitcoin funds during the same period. Martinez argued the recent rally was driven primarily by whales, while retail participants have largely remained on the sidelines or have been selling.
Still, some analysts are urging caution. Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin’s real test begins after the strong weekly close, warning that if the surge is ultimately a bear-market relief rally, BTC could pull back in the following weeks. Crypto Haris was more bearish, describing the move from $65,000 to $80,000 as a potential bull trap and projecting a decline toward $74,000, then possibly the $67,000 region, before any eventual run toward $90,000.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s daily structure remains stronger after clearing resistance between $65,900 and $67,100 and the $72,000 to $74,400 zone. However, bullish momentum has faded as price enters the $80,500 to $82,500 supply area. On the 4-hour chart, BTC has broken below a rising channel and is stabilizing around $77,000 to $78,000, which points to possible choppy consolidation between the $72,000-$74,400 support and the $80,500-$82,500 resistance. Futures order-size data also shows mostly normal orders rather than concentrated whale activity, reinforcing the view that the market lacks strong directional conviction for an immediate impulsive move.
