On-chain analyst Willy Woo has suggested that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle could evolve into a much longer six-to-eight-year cycle, marking a potential structural shift in how the asset behaves. The comments came as Bitcoin pulled back to around the $77,000 level after a recent rally, according to reports.
For years, Bitcoin’s price action has been closely associated with its four-year halving cycle, with bull and bear phases generally following reductions in new BTC issuance. Woo argues that this historical pattern may become less pronounced as the market matures.
Woo highlighted that halvings reduce miner block rewards by half roughly every four years, slowing new supply. However, he pointed out that the ratio of annual new Bitcoin supply to total supply could decline from about 0.8% to around 0.4% in the coming years. As a result, the supply shock from each halving may have a more limited impact on Bitcoin’s price than in earlier cycles.
Instead, Woo believes macroeconomic conditions, global liquidity, interest rates, credit conditions and capital flows could become more decisive in shaping future Bitcoin cycles. He suggested Bitcoin may increasingly track six-to-eight-year short-term debt cycles seen in traditional financial markets, rather than the four-year halving calendar.
The analyst’s outlook implies that Bitcoin’s bull and bear markets may not be tied as closely to halving dates in the future. Still, Woo did not declare the classic four-year cycle over; rather, he argued that the influence of halving-related supply shocks is weakening as Bitcoin’s market structure becomes more institutionally driven.
