Ali Martinez has abandoned the long-term Dogecoin price target of $15 after the meme coin broke below the rising parallel channel that defined its historical cycles. According to Martinez, every previous touch of the channel’s lower boundary marked what he called a generational buying opportunity, with gains of 9,221% in 2017 and 30,694% in 2020. When DOGE returned to that support in February 2026, the structure suggested another historic run toward $15. Now that price has fallen below the boundary, he says the technical foundation behind the $15 thesis has been removed.
DOGE was trading around $0.0806 after losing roughly 6.6% for the week and 3% on the day, sitting just below the $0.0813 level that analysts had highlighted as the line to hold. The token is nearly flat against Bitcoin, indicating the decline is tied to its own chart rather than a broad market pullback. It remains 89% below its May 2021 all-time high of $0.7316.
The bearish channel break comes after a bullish case had built through August. Martinez previously pointed to a monthly TD Sequential buy signal, an inverted hammer, a developing doji candle and whale wallets adding more than 430 million DOGE in a single week. Active addresses also rose from 38,000 in July to 44,000, and DOGE rallied about 30% late in the month to near $0.09. More aggressive forecasts called for $3 or even $10, but that momentum has faded and DOGE is back below the level it briefly cleared.
Not all signals are uniformly bearish. On-chain data from Ali Charts shows roughly 30 billion DOGE has traded around $0.081, making it a key cost-basis support zone. Binance liquidation clusters are stacked between $0.077 and $0.079 on the long side and $0.085 to $0.089 on the short side, meaning a break in either direction could accelerate. Trader Tardigrade notes that a bullish MACD cross has fired on the two-week chart for the first time in an extended period of weakness, a signal that has historically marked the start of sustained upward momentum. Still, prediction market Kalshi gives DOGE only a 4% chance of reaching $1 by January 2027 and 9% by June 2027. DOGE is currently priced near $0.0818, with the next key resistance band at $0.085 to $0.089.
