XRP is trading near $1.35–$1.374, down roughly 6% over the last week, as traders weigh controlled derivatives leverage against a bearish technical structure. The token remains well below its late-August peak near $1.70, which followed a powerful rally from around $1.00 and a broader market move triggered by Bitcoin's jump from under $65,000 to $80,000.
Derivatives data suggests leverage has not returned to 2025 extremes. According to XRP Update, the estimated leverage ratio is near 0.20–0.21, compared with previous peaks of 0.4–0.6 recorded during late 2024 and 2025. Binance’s estimated leverage ratio has risen to about 0.21, but remains below those earlier speculative levels. Futures volume stands around $6.4 billion, with open interest near $3.45 billion, indicating that derivatives remain central to XRP trading without signaling the same excessive positioning seen in prior rallies.
Technically, XRP is caught between concentrated support around $1.35–$1.37 and descending resistance extending from the $1.59 area. The 9-day simple moving average sits near $1.425, keeping immediate momentum under pressure. A sustained break above that moving average and the descending trendline could reopen the $1.45–$1.50 region, with higher resistance levels at $1.65, $1.82, and $2.40.
Analyst ChartNerd warns that XRP’s second failed weekly close above its 50-week EMA is an early warning sign for a larger retracement. The token has now posted two consecutive weekly closes below that average and is down roughly 22% from the $1.70 high. In that scenario, the next major support is the weekly 20 EMA at $1.27, with further downside levels at $1.30, $1.21, and $0.85. ChartNerd does not consider a recovery case until $1.50 is reclaimed, noting that a golden cross has not yet formed and EMAs are still coiling.
Spot XRP ETFs still pulled in more than $110 million last week, their strongest weekly inflow since December, leaving some traders open to a faster turnaround. September also carries potential catalysts, including a CLARITY Act vote in the Senate around September 15 and a shareholder vote on Evernorth’s planned Nasdaq listing. For now, the technical picture remains boxed in below resistance, with a break below $1.35 likely exposing $1.27 or lower before any sustained recovery can resume.
