Elon Musk’s fortune is unusually concentrated and unusually illiquid. As of August 27, 2026, Forbes estimated his net worth at about $862.4 billion, including roughly $665.5 billion in SpaceX stock, $45.9 billion in SpaceX options, $136.8 billion in Tesla stock and $14.1 billion in private holdings. Bloomberg has historically marked the same fortune lower; in April 2026, before SpaceX listed, Forbes had Musk at about $786 billion while Bloomberg had him near $654 billion, a gap of roughly $132 billion. The divergence stems from different liquidity discounts, peer-comparison methods and treatment of restricted Tesla shares, not simple error.
SpaceX stock is the main driver of the volatility. About 82.5% of Musk's Forbes-measured wealth sits in SpaceX, and every $1 move in SPCX shifts his net worth by about $5.12 billion, compared with about $0.70 billion for each $1 move in Tesla. Since its June 2026 IPO, SPCX has traded between roughly $105 and $226, meaning daily swings can move the world's largest fortune by tens of billions of dollars. Musk’s own stake is locked under a 366-day agreement with no early-release provisions, frozen until June 12, 2027.
The September 9 lockup expiry is the next test. It marks the 90th trading day since the IPO and could make roughly 319 million additional insider shares eligible for sale. The first and largest unlock on August 6 released more than 900 million shares without a collapse; instead, the stock rebounded above its $135 IPO price and rallied about 35% over five sessions, adding roughly $500 billion in market value. SpaceX shares closed Thursday at $149.74, up 6.4%, giving a market capitalization of just over $2 trillion. Analyst targets remain bullish: FactSet puts the average target at $225.87, with a range from $75 to $800. Oppenheimer raised its target to $280 from $250, citing accelerating AI infrastructure demand, while investor Ross Gerber said he sees greater long-term potential in SpaceX than Tesla and suggested the two companies could eventually merge.
The AI opportunity comes with massive spending. SpaceX’s capital expenditure reached $28.5 billion in the first half of 2026, up 308% year over year; second-quarter capex was $18.4 billion, with 86% directed toward AI. Morgan Stanley expects up to $64 billion of AI infrastructure spending this year. Second-quarter sales were $7.8 billion, meaning capex was more than twice quarterly revenue, though the company targets $100 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2026. Compute agreements with Anthropic and Google can reportedly be terminated with only a few months’ notice, and the stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio near 65. Still, Stifel’s Jonathan Siegmann argues the spending reflects a red-hot AI capacity demand signal, and Jim Cramer has called SpaceX 'a 100-year piece of paper' for patient investors. For insiders, the September 9 expiry is less about long-term belief than about deciding whether to diversify after life-changing gains.
