SpaceX is accelerating its shift from the Falcon 9 rocket to the next-generation Starship, and Wall Street analysts are increasingly pricing in the potential upside. The company completed its 80th Starlink launch of 2026 on Sunday, sending 27 satellites to low-Earth orbit from Vandenberg Space Force Base. SpaceX vice president of launch Kiko Dontchev recently confirmed that Falcon 9 has completed its final Starlink mission from Florida, writing that Florida Starlink launches will now use Starship while the West Coast team continues from Vandenberg.
The operational transition is significant because Starship is fully reusable, carries a larger payload, and uses liquid methane rather than kerosene, which could meaningfully reduce per-launch costs. SpaceX has filed paperwork for its 14th Starship test flight, with a potential operation start date of September 15, making the upcoming test a key catalyst for the stock.
SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, up 91.9% year over year, while earnings per share came in at -$0.09, beating the analyst consensus estimate of -$0.26. Over the last twelve months, the company generated about $23 billion in revenue with a gross profit margin of nearly 52%. Despite those figures, SpaceX remains GAAP loss-making, posting a trailing loss of $2.27 per share.
Institutional interest has grown alongside the operational momentum. K5 Global Advisor LLC disclosed a new $6.59 billion position in SPCX during the second quarter, making SpaceX the firm's sole reported holding. Other institutional buyers included Hyperion Asset Management with a $201 million stake, Bond Capital Management with $180 million, and Value Aligned Research Advisors with $100 million.
Pivotal Research initiated coverage on SpaceX with a Buy rating and a $220 price target. The firm's thesis hinges on SpaceX achieving Starship reusability of 20 to 50 flights per vehicle with cheap, fast refurbishment. Pivotal called this "a single admittedly massive engineering bottleneck," and warned that failure would make SpaceX "a different and much smaller company." If successful, the firm sees opportunities in Starlink's expansion into the $1.7 trillion terrestrial and wireless market, orbital data centers, point-to-point suborbital passenger flights, space manufacturing, and defense projects such as the Golden Dome.
The stock closed at $147.95 on Friday, up 3% for the week, with a 52-week range of $104.83 to $225.64. Wall Street's average price target is $221.20, implying roughly 50% upside. Notable targets include Arete Research at $450, Oppenheimer at $280, and Bernstein SocGen at $248. Bank of America has a Buy rating with a $235 target, while Piper Sandler trimmed its target to $140 and kept a neutral rating.
Near-term risks remain. A share unlock scheduled for September 9 could bring selling pressure from insiders and early investors. SpaceX also spent $18.4 billion in a single quarter, including $15.8 billion on AI infrastructure, and some analysts question whether the company's multitrillion-dollar valuation already prices in much of its long-term growth.
