CryptoQuant has warned that Bitcoin is approaching a crucial MVRV Z-Score level, but the current picture does not yet confirm a new bull market. The on-chain indicator is closing in on its 365-day moving average, a line that marked regime changes in previous cycles. Historically, sustained breakouts above this average preceded the 2017 bull run, the 2020-2021 rise, and the 2023 recovery expansion.
However, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score remains below the 365-day moving average. CryptoQuant notes that a decisive break and hold above it would suggest rising unrealized profits and a new expansion phase, while rejection would imply the market remains in a repair regime. Unlike previous cycle lows, the metric has not dropped below zero in the recent pullback, which could mean either a structurally shallower correction or incomplete capitulation. The firm also notes that each cycle has formed lower peaks, suggesting valuation excesses are becoming more limited over time.
Separately, analyst Ali Martinez highlighted that Bitcoin recently reclaimed its Warm Supply Realized Price, which tracks average cost basis over one week to six months. The previous four such events were followed by rallies, including a nearly 160% increase from October 2023 and a 74% surge a year later. X user Crypto Rover pointed to a "golden cross" on the Bitcoin chart, noting that the last occurrence ended the bear market and led to an eventual 500% gain.
Institutional demand is also strengthening. Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in almost $1 billion last week, with BlackRock's IBIT holding cumulative net assets above $64 billion and Fidelity's FBTC around $10.3 billion.
Still, some analysts expect a sharp pullback before any full-scale bull run. Forecasts include a decline toward $62,000 or even $50,000, and a rejection at $83,000 could keep Bitcoin's structure bearish. A daily close above $83,000 with a successful retest, however, could open the door toward $100,000.
