Trading firm Wintermute says Bitcoin’s current cycle is following a less severe path than previous bear markets, noting that BTC is roughly 50% below its peak 340 days after the top, compared with losses above 75% at the same point in 2018 and 2022.
According to Wintermute, each cycle has bottomed at shallower drawdowns: 83%, then 77%, and now around 50%. The firm did not confirm that June was the final low, but said the structure looks different from past cycles. Recovery timelines have also shortened: previous cycles required more than 500 days to return to levels comparable to the current point. Wintermute linked the smaller drawdown to earlier participation from exchange-traded funds and institutional investors, while improving market breadth—profits rotating between investor groups—resembles the early stages of a new cycle.
Bitcoin traded near $79,000 at the time of writing, up more than 2% over seven days and nearly 22% over 30 days per CoinGecko. Last week it absorbed a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, rising to about $82,400 before payrolls briefly knocked it roughly $3,000 lower; it still closed 3.45% higher above $80,000. Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $46 million in outflows yesterday but took in nearly $987 million last week—their third consecutive positive week and over $3.8 billion cumulatively during that streak.
On-chain analyst Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, said Bitcoin’s Balanced Price metric—based on spending patterns of older BTC—sits near $38,400, though price does not need to revisit that level. The gaps between major touches have widened from 732 days to 1,120, then 1,200, then 1,420, and time spent below the metric has shrunk from weeks to about a single day in 2022. Trader Killa expects a new all-time high by November 2027, pointing to cycles that are bottoming and peaking faster.
