Solana Faces Risk of Dropping Below $100 as Bearish Pressure Mounts

1 hour ago 2 sources negative

Key takeaways:

  • SOL's drop reflects macro risk-off, not Solana-specific weakness, making $100 support critical for sentiment.
  • Watch US inflation data and Fed signals; SOL remains a high-beta macro play.
  • Watch daily close below $100; it could trigger selling toward $95 and $90-$92.50 support.

Solana (SOL) is facing renewed downside pressure, trading near $101 on Sept. 10 after falling 3.5% over the previous 24 hours and briefly touching roughly $100.60. The token has moved below its 9-day simple moving average at $102.88, putting the psychologically important $100 support level in focus.

The decline is part of a broader risk-off move across global markets, triggered by oil prices rising above $100 per barrel as the US-Iran conflict intensified and attacks on shipping disrupted energy flows through the Middle East. Higher energy costs have raised US inflation concerns ahead of key inflation data and next week's Federal Reserve decision. Asian equities fell alongside crypto as investors trimmed risk exposure.

Pressure from the bond market added to the move. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 4.85%, its highest level since late 2023, after the Treasury announced a $6 billion long-dated bond buyback that was smaller than some investors expected. Traders are now pricing in roughly a 60% probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase following strong labour market data.

Crypto markets broadly declined, with Bitcoin trading near $79,000 and around $246 million in crypto positions liquidated over 24 hours as volatility increased. Coinbase market data linked SOL's decline to inflation concerns and weakness across smart contract platform tokens, suggesting the sell-off was not driven by a new Solana-specific event. Profit-taking likely added pressure once SOL slipped from the $105 area.

Technically, the daily Commodity Channel Index has dropped to -10.02 from above 300 during the August breakout, indicating that strong positive momentum toward $110 has faded. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD line has fallen to -0.46 below the signal line at -0.33, leaving short-term momentum tilted toward sellers. On-balance volume has also declined to -44.94 million, confirming that the drop toward $100 has been accompanied by falling cumulative volume.

A daily close below $100 could bring $95 into focus, with the $90-$92.50 area forming the next support zone from the August breakout. A recovery would require SOL to move back above the 9-day SMA at $102.88, with resistance near $105-$107 and the August high near $110 remaining the next major level above.

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