Bitcoin’s on-chain profitability has entered its longest stretch of 2026, but analysts remain divided on whether the move marks an early bull-market recovery or simply a temporary bounce within a broader downtrend.
According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin’s spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has remained above 1 since Aug. 19, hovering near 1.002. A SOPR above 1 means coins moved on-chain are generally being sold at a profit, which historically can indicate bullish momentum. The three-week streak is the longest such run this year. Checkonchain noted that short-term holder SOPR structure now resembles early bull-market recoveries, where brief drops below break-even become buying opportunities rather than signals to sell. Bitcoin has held a local range near $80,000 while the streak continues.
However, ARK Invest portfolio manager and Puell Multiple creator David Puell told CryptoQuant on Sept. 4 that the risk remains tilted to the downside. He wants to see SOPR stay above 1 for a longer period, consistent profit realization without a new price low, and a series of higher highs and higher lows. According to Puell, Bitcoin still lacks that pattern on weekly time frames.
Separately, on-chain analyst Willy Woo said the July decline near $57,800 did not show the broad dip-buying typically seen at cycle bottoms. Using HODL Waves data, Woo pointed out that the share of BTC inactive for one to seven days rose only from 1.97% on July 1 to 2.35% on July 5. That limited reaction suggests the buying may have been driven by a single large investor, meaning the $58,000 area cannot yet be considered a definitive bottom.
CryptoQuant Research Director Julio Moreno added that Bitcoin’s apparent demand indicator has returned to positive territory, but the recovery still resembles the limited 2024 rebound rather than the strong capital inflows seen in late 2024 and 2025. He described the market as stabilizing rather than entering a new bull phase, arguing that stronger and more sustained buying is needed.
The mixed picture is heightened by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju’s late-August claim that the bear market was already over. For now, improving on-chain profitability coexists with weak demand signals and an unconfirmed price trend, leaving the next few weeks as a key test of whether the SOPR streak represents a true shift or another bounce.
