Bitcoin’s push toward $86,000–$87,000 has driven bullish crypto commentary to its highest level since December 2024, but contrarian analyst Dan Krupka is warning that the market may be entering the final stage of a bear market relief rally before a sharp fourth-quarter reversal.
Krupka, founder of Connection Capital and former research head at Coin Bureau, expects one more upside squeeze. He sees Bitcoin potentially adding 20% to 30% and tagging the $96,000 area, Ethereum reaching $3,300–$3,500, and Solana pushing to $140–$160. Yet he cautions that such explosive moves are likely to drive weekly RSI readings into overbought territory and set up violent snapbacks.
The macro backdrop is the larger concern. Krupka says the US Dollar Index is pressing monthly Bollinger Band resistance; a dollar breakout would bleed risk assets. His caution echoes warnings from investors including Warren Buffett and Michael Burry, who have flagged overheated market conditions. He adds that Washington policy discussions, including ideas floated by former Trump advisers such as Stephen Moore, may tolerate or encourage a stronger dollar. He believes crypto has never produced a structural bull market against a surging dollar, and if Bitcoin hits $96,000 and reverses, a standard 50% retracement could send BTC back to the $30,000–$40,000 range.
Data from Santiment reinforces the increasingly one-sided mood. On September 21, bullish crypto commentary reached 954 mentions versus 269 bearish mentions as Bitcoin traded near $86,700. The move was amplified by derivatives activity: roughly $648 million in bearish positions were liquidated over 24 hours, total crypto trading volume increased 39%, and open interest rose 7.6% to approximately $156 billion. Rising open interest after such a liquidation event may add to volatility in either direction.
Separately, the Cardano Foundation announced on September 21 that Cardano is now integrated into the x402 software development kit, allowing applications and AI agents to pay for API calls using ADA or Cardano native tokens through web requests without a conventional checkout process.
