SpaceX stock climbed more than 2% on Monday, trading near $156, after the company's weighting in the Nasdaq-100 more than doubled as part of the index's quarterly rebalance. SpaceX will now account for 2.82% of the Nasdaq-100, making it the seventh-largest constituent by market capitalization with a valuation above $2 trillion. The increase closes a long-standing gap between SpaceX's market value and its influence in the benchmark, which had remained unusually low since the company was added to the index in July.
The earlier underweighting stemmed from lockup restrictions that left much of SpaceX's stock unavailable for public trading at the time of inclusion. Nasdaq adjusted its rules to allow newly listed large-cap companies to enter the index sooner and removed a requirement that at least 10% of shares be publicly tradable. With the higher weighting now in effect, passive funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 must adjust their holdings. More than 200 investment products track the index, representing more than $800 billion in assets under management globally, which could create additional demand for SpaceX shares.
However, the stock still faces supply pressure from a staggered lockup expiration schedule. Unlike a conventional IPO with a single 180-day lockup, SpaceX structured its prospectus around roughly a dozen dates on which insiders and other shareholders can become eligible to sell. Shares fell around 3% during a recent major release after as many as 319 million Class A shares became eligible for trading, worth roughly $49 billion at recent prices. Another 59.1 million affiliate shares became unlocked the following day. Additional releases are scheduled through the rest of 2026, including approximately 320 million shares expected on September 24, October 9, and October 24. The largest potential release is expected after third-quarter results, when up to 1.3 billion shares, or roughly 28% of the relevant share pool, could become sellable. By the end of 2026, roughly 4.9 billion SpaceX shares are expected to have become available for trading.
Investors are also monitoring SpaceX's next major Starship test. SpaceX said it is targeting Starship Flight 14 for as early as September 28, pending regulatory approval. The mission has a 75-minute launch window beginning at 8:15 a.m. ET and is expected to be the first revenue-generating Starship mission. CFO Bret Johnsen described it that way at a recent Goldman Sachs conference. The spacecraft is expected to carry and deploy 26 Starlink Version 3 satellites, supporting an upgrade of the company's satellite constellation. Analysts consider Starship central to SpaceX's long-term investment case because much of its growth potential depends on turning Starship into a reusable, high-frequency launch system.
Separately, Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Byrd said SpaceX has a key competitive advantage in scaling power solutions faster and cheaper than rivals. SpaceX ended Q2 2026 with 1.4 gigawatts of AI computing capacity and is targeting 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027. Byrd projects AI power demand will grow to nearly 100 gigawatts by 2028, roughly 8% of total U.S. electricity generating capacity. He argued that utilities cannot scale that fast, while SpaceX has proven capabilities in scaling time-to-power solutions. Byrd sees terrestrial compute peaking at around 15 gigawatts in 2031.
Elon Musk has said he is highly confident SpaceX will begin launching NVIDIA's most advanced AI computers into orbit as early as 2027. The plan involves adapting Starlink satellites with NVIDIA chips and solar panels, with larger deployments targeted for 2028 and a long-term vision of up to one million compute satellites. NVIDIA has been named the exclusive chip supplier for the orbital computing project and already holds a stake in SpaceX. Analysts do not expect meaningful revenue from orbital AI before around 2029, viewing the 2027 and 2028 milestones as feasibility tests rather than commercial events. SpaceX stock slipped 0.6% on Monday to close at $151.85, missing a broader tech rally that saw the Nasdaq Composite rise 2.3%, but was up 0.5% in premarket trading Tuesday. The stock has risen roughly 45% since the start of August.
