Tesla shares rose after Fitch Ratings assigned the company its first-ever investment-grade credit rating, while Wall Street’s third-quarter delivery estimates show a widening split ahead of October catalysts.
Fitch assigned Tesla a BBB rating on Monday evening, citing good credit quality and low default risk. The stock closed up 3.1% at $375.63 on Monday and added another 0.7% in premarket trading Tuesday to $377.87. Fitch pointed to Tesla’s global leadership in battery electric vehicles and its push toward becoming a “physical AI company,” but noted heavy AI spending is likely to add debt over time. Tesla plans to spend $25 billion on plants and equipment in 2026, up from under $9 billion in 2025, and is expected to burn about $10 billion more cash than it generates this year despite a reported $43.5 billion cash cushion.
Investors are watching several October catalysts: the Roadster reveal on October 1, third-quarter deliveries, and the earnings call. Wall Street’s Q3 delivery estimates span a 45,000-vehicle gap. Goldman Sachs’ Mark Delaney cut his forecast to 435,000 from 490,000, citing weaker monthly sales in the US, China, and Europe. The Visible Alpha consensus stands at 456,000, Bloomberg’s figure is near 466,000, Barclays’ Dan Levy is more bullish at about 475,000, and Kalshi traders center around 480,100. Goldman’s forecast would be a sequential drop from the 480,126 vehicles delivered in Q2.
Kalshi’s estimate carries weight because it proved more accurate than Goldman before Q2 results: the prediction market centered near 480,126 and Tesla reported exactly that, while Goldman missed by more than 60,000 vehicles. US sales data support Goldman’s caution—Tesla sold an estimated 40,816 vehicles in the US in August, down 26% year over year, and its US EV market share slipped from about 59% in Q4 2025 to 50.5% in Q2 2026. However, European registrations were running 85% to 90% ahead of a year earlier in June, helped by Germany’s reinstated EV purchase incentive, and Tesla added shifts at its Berlin plant to lift Model Y output.
Tesla stock remains down about 17% year-to-date and trades above both Goldman’s $360 and Barclays’ $370 price targets, while the broader Wall Street consensus is a Hold with a $412.25 target. The company missed EPS estimates last quarter, reporting $0.33 versus $0.50 expected, though revenue beat at $28.24 billion versus $26.42 billion. Elsewhere, the Czech Republic provisionally approved Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system, and Tesla and Sunrun reported dispatching over 580 megawatts of peak power to California’s grid during a heat wave.
