The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.9% on Wednesday, up from 2.8% in June, as robust artificial intelligence investment helped cushion the world economy against a persistent Middle East energy shock. The 2027 outlook, however, was revised down to 3.0% from 3.1%.
G20 inflation is now projected to reach 4.1% in 2026, slightly above the 4.0% June estimate, and to climb to 3.6% in 2027 — a sharp upward revision from the 3.1% forecast three months earlier. Core G20 inflation is seen at 2.7% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
AI-related spending on data centers, semiconductors and other infrastructure supported global production, trade and growth, with technology export gains in Japan and South Korea feeding activity in the United States. The US economy is now expected to grow 2.2% in 2026, up from the June projection, before easing to 2.1% in 2027. China’s growth was held at 4.5% for 2026 and 4.2% for 2027, while Canada received the largest downgrade — to 0.9% from 1.2% for 2026 and to 1.3% from 1.7% for 2027 — because of new US tariffs. Eurozone growth remained stuck at 1.0% for both years.
The OECD cautioned that growth could weaken if long-term sovereign bond yields rise further or if AI-related investment returns fall short of expectations, potentially triggering a repricing of financial assets. Persistently high energy prices, weaker real income growth and higher interest rates were also listed as factors that could temper growth. A separate UN assessment was gloomier, projecting global growth of just 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027, while noting Brent crude has climbed roughly 40% since February to around $100 a barrel.
On the energy front, crude oil traded near $91 a barrel, extending losses into a fifth straight session, after President Trump said US officials had “a very good meeting” with Iranian envoys and that there was “a lot of momentum” toward a deal. Saudi Arabia was also preparing to restart its East-West pipeline after drone attacks earlier in the month.
For digital assets, the macro narrative remains directly relevant. Bitcoin hit an eight-month high above $86,000 on Monday alongside record closes for the Nasdaq, according to Cryptopolitan, reflecting how crypto and AI-linked equities have tracked the same risk-on optimism. Still, the OECD’s inflation upgrades and 2027 downgrade point to a mixed backdrop for risk assets.
