Bitcoin is navigating a critical technical retest after falling out of a previously bullish wedge formation. The price came down to perfectly retest what had been an important bear market higher high at $82,825, which has now been confirmed as support. That level also lines up with horizontal support, the 0.618 Fibonacci level, and a descending trendline, creating a strong confluence zone. If the level breaks, the next support areas are the 0.786 Fibonacci at $81,700 and the top of the parallel channel. On the daily chart, BTC retraced to the top of a large bear market flag, while the RSI has returned to retest a descending trendline. Analysts argue that as long as this trendline holds, upside price action should continue. The measured move from a larger bull flag breakout points toward roughly $94,280, a major resistance level.
Near-term pressure remains, however. Bitcoin was down 2.27% over 24 hours to $83,509.77 as rising Treasury yields and renewed rate-hike concerns weighed on risk assets. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.13%, its highest level since 2007, and Bitcoin’s 86% correlation with the S&P 500 shows how closely crypto is tracking broader risk sentiment. After BTC lost the $84,000 area, leveraged positions were hit hard: more than $545 million in crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours, including about $447 million in longs.
Analyst Rekt Capital argues that traders should not automatically expect another 30% correction. Looking at the 2022–2025 cycle, Bitcoin’s pullbacks above 30% occurred in the post-halving period, while pre-halving retracements were only slightly above 20%. A 30% decline from current levels would take BTC toward roughly $58,500, but the analyst says bull-market corrections can land within the 10%–30% range and investors waiting for an exact low may miss the broader move.
Institutional demand provides a counterweight. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $998.95 million in net inflows on September 21, their largest single-day inflow since October 2025. BlackRock’s IBIT took in $381.4 million, ARKB received $289.1 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC attracted $238.8 million. The inflows also pushed the average ETF investor back into profit. Separately, BlackRock is working with Ondo Finance to bring three model portfolios containing stock, bond and Bitcoin ETFs onchain, offering non-U.S. investors 24/7 trading, transfers and the ability to borrow against holdings. Ondo has about $3.9 billion in tokenized assets.
