Bitcoin came under renewed selling pressure on Thursday as long-dated US Treasury yields surged to multi-decade highs and oil prices revived inflation concerns. The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.42%, with an intraday print near 5.44%—the highest since June 2004—while the 10-year yield climbed to around 5.12%–5.13%, the highest since 2007. The move was driven by stronger US business activity, higher energy prices, and rising expectations of additional Federal Reserve tightening.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders now see a 75.3% probability that the Fed will lift rates to a 4.00%–4.25% range at its October 28 meeting, up sharply from 55% a day earlier. Bas Kooijman, CEO of DHF Capital, said stronger US business activity and higher energy prices have raised tightening expectations, and upcoming labor data could push yields and the dollar higher if it surprises to the upside.
The pressure pushed Bitcoin below $84,000, with BTC trading near $83,200 during Asian hours and losing about 2.4% to $83,687.7 by 09:16 ET. Ethereum, Cardano, XRP, and Dogecoin also posted losses. Rising government bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, although strong recent Bitcoin ETF inflows suggest institutional crypto demand has not disappeared.
Technical analysts are watching key support levels. James Stanley of FOREX.com named $82,833 as the next level to watch. Crypto analyst BATMAN noted the rejection near $87,000 aligned with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension target and pointed to $81,000–$82,000 as the nearest support zone. Despite the pullback, Bitcoin remains up about 7.35% for September, and traders are mindful that October has averaged a 19.92% gain historically, though last year it fell 3.69%.
Additional macro pressure came from the US Treasury’s announcement of a $6 billion buyback of bonds with 20 to 30 years remaining, aimed at improving liquidity in long-dated debt. Oil prices rose after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian criticized the US and President Trump at the United Nations, raising concerns over US-Iran supply talks, while Japanese 10-year bond yields hit a 30-year high.
