Micron Technology enters its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report on Wednesday with the potential to overtake Nvidia as the largest single contributor to S&P 500 earnings growth for the first time in at least two and a half years. FactSet-tracked analysts expect earnings per share to surge 940% year over year, while revenue is forecast to jump nearly fivefold to $51.14 billion. If those estimates are met, Micron would move from the third-largest contributor in the first half of the year to the top ranking, according to Seaport Research Partners data cited by MarketWatch.
The stock has been a major AI-market barometer, gaining 243% year-to-date and nearly 590% over the past 12 months, giving Micron a market value around $1.2 trillion. On Monday, however, shares fell about 2% in premarket trading to roughly $1,056, tracking a broader semiconductor pullback driven by rising bond yields and OpenAI's weekend announcement that it would pause training its latest AI models over safety concerns. "When you have leadership that's this narrow, it stops being company-specific, and the report becomes a market event in and of itself," said Jake Behan, Direxion's head of capital markets.
Wall Street analysts remain broadly positive ahead of the report. Citi raised its price target to $1,300 from $1,150, while JPMorgan reiterated an Overweight rating and a $1,540 target. Baird lifted its target to $1,520 from $1,280, though it maintained an Underperform rating; Wells Fargo increased its target to $1,400, and Stifel and UBS reiterated Buy ratings. JPMorgan noted that Micron had already shipped more than $1 billion worth of HBM4 as of the May quarter and expects the company's revenue, gross margin, and EPS to beat consensus.
Supply dynamics remain a central theme. Daniel Morgan, senior portfolio manager at Synovus Trust, said DRAM and NAND supply should stay tight into fiscal 2027, with real relief not expected until fiscal 2028. He added that Micron is still fulfilling less than half of the volume its data center customers are requesting. Options markets imply a post-earnings move of roughly 8% to 10%, equivalent to about $87 to $108 based on the stock's recent price.
