Bitcoin retreated to the $82,000–$85,000 range after briefly topping $87,000, leaving traders divided over whether the move is a normal correction or a bearish recovery signal.
Greeks.live analyst Adam argued the upswing resembled a bear market rebound. He noted put option block trades, used to hedge against or bet on declines, accounted for roughly one-third of volume. Despite Bitcoin's rapid rise, implied volatility for major expiries fell to around 35%, indicating options investors are not pricing in major volatility and some are positioning for another drop.
HTX chief analyst Cloud took a more measured view, calling the decline a normal correction rather than a trend reversal. He attributed the pullback largely to macroeconomic conditions and rising US bond yields. Cloud also highlighted a divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins, saying capital may concentrate in BTC during low liquidity, while altcoins could see more volatility because of high leverage and lower liquidity. He expects the divergence to persist until personal consumption expenditure and non-farm payroll data are released this week.
Glassnode pointed to the $84,000–$85,000 area as critical resistance where long-term investors are concentrated. For the uptrend to strengthen, BTC would need to break and hold above that zone; the next key level would be the MVRV price around $96,700. If Bitcoin falls below $84,000, Glassnode sees $77,000 regaining importance as support.
10x Research founder Markus Thielen addressed the role of US Treasury yields. A rise in the 10-year yield toward 6% would not automatically hurt Bitcoin, he said. If the increase reflects fiscal deficit and government debt concerns, investors may turn to alternative assets and increase BTC demand. However, if yields rise because the Federal Reserve is aggressively hiking rates, Bitcoin could face significant pressure, similar to the roughly 64% drawdown during the 2022 tightening cycle.
