Bitcoin is entering a critical stretch as the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections and the August PCE inflation report converge, leaving traders split between historical post-election weakness and resilient institutional demand. Analyst Ali Charts has flagged $73,000 as a potential downside level, describing it as a short-term holder cost-basis zone that could become a key reference if selling accelerates after the vote.
His review of prior midterm cycles shows sharp declines in several cycles. He compared 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, while cautioning that the elections themselves were not necessarily the direct cause. Binance Research separately found substantial Bitcoin drawdowns during the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm years, but also an average 54% gain over the following 12 months. Q4 seasonality is similarly mixed: Bitcoin gained 391% in Q4 2010 but posted losses in Q4 2014, 2018, and 2022.
The macro side is equally tense. After the Federal Reserve lifted its policy-rate target to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.24% on September 28. Bitcoin traded around $83,100 on September 30, down about 0.9%, after briefly rallying above $87,000 earlier in September. Traders are watching $84,000 as a reclaim threshold, with the ETF cohort cost basis near $84,714 as the next test. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $2.39 billion for the week ending September 26, the largest weekly inflow of 2026, after about $746.3 million in outflows across September 15 and 16.
VanEck’s digital assets research head Matthew Sigel offers a bullish counterpoint, saying Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by next year, citing fiscal pressures, liquidity conditions and continued institutional demand. He also noted Bitcoin volatility has fallen by roughly 50% compared with four years ago. Still, the near-term path remains conditional: softer PCE data and easing Treasury yields could help BTC reclaim $84,000, while a hotter report and further yield pressure could leave $60,000 as a longer-term reference, with the June cycle low near $58,300 as deeper downside context.
