Bitcoin treasury stocks and crypto markets are rallying after Citigroup delivered a notably more bullish outlook on Strategy and digital assets. Strategy (MSTR) closed at $160.50 on October 1, up more than 102% from its 2026 low, while Strive climbed to $31 after gaining over 340% from its all-time low. The moves came as Bitcoin traded near $86,000, with technical charts pointing toward a possible run at $100,000.
Citi raised its Strategy price target to $240 from $136, keeping a Buy rating. The new target implies roughly 50% upside from the October 1 close. The bank also lifted its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $113,000 from $82,000 and its Ethereum forecast to $3,028 from $2,240, citing stronger crypto activity and steadier ETF inflows. About 34% of the Strategy target increase is tied to the higher Bitcoin forecast, while 16% reflects an expected expansion in the stock’s premium to net asset value. Citi raised its Bitcoin Yield Multiple assumption to 4.0 times from 2.5 times, pushing the implied mNAV to 1.24 times from 1.065 times.
ETF flow data supported the constructive tone. U.S. spot Bitcoin funds added more than $102 million in the month, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing over $195 million, Grayscale’s BTC adding over $14 million and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT adding over $7 million. These inflows were partly offset by outflows from Fidelity, Grayscale, Bitwise and VanEck. Bitcoin ETFs now hold over $109 billion in assets, with cumulative inflows around $57.6 billion. Citi expects roughly $5 billion in net inflows over the next 12 months. On the regulatory front, the Senate’s failure to advance the Clarity Act narrowed the near-term path for market-structure legislation, though subsequent SEC rule announcements offset some negativity.
Strategy continues to accumulate. As of September 27, the company held 847,666 BTC purchased for $63.95 billion at an average cost of $75,437. Its most recent Form 8-K showed purchases of 1,665 BTC between September 21 and 27 at an average price of $85,681, funded by Class A stock sales. The company also reported a USD reserve near $5.02 billion and $1.00 billion in cash. On the technical side, Bitcoin has broken above $82,070 resistance, formed a golden cross, and is challenging $87,270. MSTR has also moved above its 200-day moving average and the Supertrend indicator, with bulls targeting $196.
