VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, said in a recent Bitcoin Magazine interview that the firm uses half of gold’s market capitalization as its medium-term “north star” for Bitcoin. At current valuations, that would imply roughly $500,000 per BTC, a level Sigel said could be reached this cycle or the next.
Sigel highlighted the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which measures how many ounces of gold one Bitcoin can buy. The ratio fell to around 16–17 during the summer after previously reaching approximately 40, leaving room for Bitcoin to roughly double against gold even without assuming an unprecedented relative valuation. He emphasized that the $500,000 figure should not be read as a short-term forecast.
Institutional demand is supporting the recovery. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $6.34 billion in Q3, their strongest quarter of 2026, after roughly $5 billion of outflows in Q2. Bitcoin gained almost 43% during the same quarter, with ETF data supporting the view that “real money” has returned to the market.
Sigel acknowledged that Bitcoin remains roughly three times as volatile as gold, meaning the two assets should not necessarily carry identical portfolio weights. He also pointed to quantum computing as a long-term technical risk, though he does not consider it a reason to sell Bitcoin today. Near term, Bitcoin still needs to clear the recurring $87K resistance and then $90,000 before six-figure targets become relevant.
