Bitcoin is drawing fresh attention from traders as the U.S. midterm elections approach, with historical data showing notable gains in the twelve months after previous midterm cycles. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin rose 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% in the year following the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterms respectively. The S&P 500 has also advanced in all 19 twelve-month periods after U.S. midterm elections since 1950, averaging a gain of 15.4%.
However, analysts at XWIN Japan cautioned that Bitcoin's history around midterms is based on only three observations and cannot establish a reliable rule. They noted that BTC actually fell 45.5% in the first month after the 2018 election, and stressed that reduced political uncertainty may help risk-taking, but the election itself does not create a direct cause for higher crypto prices. Sustained gains will likely require supportive market conditions, including continued ETF buying, cooling Treasury yields, and progress on regulatory clarity after the vote.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $86,000 on CoinGecko, little changed over 24 hours, up about 3% over seven days and almost 8% over one month. It remains 31% lower than a year ago and nearly 32% below its $126,000 record. The cryptocurrency closed the third quarter up 43% after starting it under $58,000, helped by U.S. Treasury long-end bond buybacks and positive spot ETF flows, according to Iliya Kalchev of Nexo Dispatch.
Looking ahead, Lacie Zhang of Bitget Wallet expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points on October 28, a move that could shape Bitcoin's position just before Americans vote. Zhang sees $87,500 as the main hurdle for BTC, with a breakout raising the odds of a short squeeze. A loss of the $82,000 to $82,500 support zone could open a move below $80,000. Traders are therefore watching midterm outcomes, bond market behavior, and large-wallet accumulation closely before positioning for the final months of the year.
