U.S. Representative Don Davis (D-NC) introduced legislation on Monday that would make it a civil offense for federal candidates, their spouses, dependent children, and authorized campaign committees to trade prediction-market contracts tied to their own elections. The bill, titled the No Betting on Your Own Race Act, would impose a civil penalty of $10,000 per violation or three times the net financial gain from the trade, whichever is greater.
The proposal covers direct buying, selling, acquiring, disposing, or holding of contracts that settle on whether a candidate wins, remains in the race, receives a particular vote share or margin, or finishes in a specified position. It also reaches indirect exposure: directing another person to trade, maintaining a beneficial interest through another holder, or knowingly providing money for someone else to acquire a contract.
“We don’t want our athletes to bet on their games,” Davis said. “Candidates running for federal elected office should be treated exactly the same and should not be allowed to trade on their own election.”
The legislation is aimed at platforms as well as candidates. Exchanges and their staff would be shielded from liability for good-faith actions to stop a suspected breach, including restricting, suspending, or closing an account and cancelling, voiding, or unwinding a position. They could report suspected violations to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the attorney general, or the Federal Election Commission without liability and without notifying the person reported.
To make screening possible, the FEC would be required to publish a free, machine-readable list of every federal candidate at least weekly, including each person’s name, commission identifier, office sought, and dates they entered and left the race. State election boards and the FEC would also need to notify candidates of the rules when they file.
The bill contains a limited divestment grace period: holding or selling a position that becomes a covered contract when a person declares candidacy would not be an offense during the minimum divestment window permitted by the platform.
The definition of a political event contract is broader than individual races. It would include caucuses, nominations, control of Congress, and any other political or governmental event the CFTC designates by rule. If enacted, the restrictions would apply to conduct from the date of enactment, not retroactively.
Prediction-market platforms have largely handled such cases internally. Earlier this year, Kalshi fined and suspended multiple congressional candidates for trading on their own election outcomes. The CFTC is separately investigating former Representative Adam Kinzinger over trades tied to his own presidential pardon, and agency staff recently warned exchanges that contracts settling on named individuals should be presumed open to manipulation.
Davis’s measure is one of several congressional proposals addressing political event contracts. Representative Bryan Steil introduced legislation in June that would restrict members of Congress and their families from trading contracts tied to government policies and political outcomes, while Kalshi has backed a proposal from Representative Ritchie Torres aimed at restricting government officials from trading certain political prediction contracts. The Davis bill differs by focusing specifically on federal candidates and contracts tied directly to their own electoral contests.
For prediction-market platforms, the measure would formalize candidate-trading restrictions as compliance requirements rather than internal policies. It could increase compliance costs but also reduce uncertainty over how platforms should handle candidates trading on their own races.
