Bitcoin Slides Below $83K as Oil Tops $100 and Bond Yields Hit 24-Year High on Iran Tensions

2 hour ago 3 sources negative

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin's sub-$83K break reflects macro risk-off from oil, bond yields, and hawkish Fed.
  • Bitcoin open interest signals derivatives deleveraging, so watch $81K-$82.5K bids for short-term bounce.
  • Ether, XRP, Solana's declines confirm broad risk aversion; watch Bitcoin's $69.5K short-term holder cost basis.

Bitcoin came under renewed selling pressure on Wednesday, falling below $83,000 for the first time in October as a sharp rise in oil prices and multi-decade highs in U.S. bond yields dampened risk appetite across global markets. Data from Bitstamp showed BTC/USD dropping to $82,734, while Investing.com reported the decline at roughly 2.8% with Bitcoin trading near $83,198.5 by late afternoon. The move marked a clear break below Bitcoin’s 21-day simple moving average of $83,850, a level that had previously acted as support.

The risk-off tone was triggered by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. An adviser to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said the Strait of Hormuz was under full military control and would remain so until Iran’s demands were met. Brent crude rose as high as $102 per barrel before settling 0.6% higher at $101.17, while WTI crude touched $91 during the session. The psychological impact of oil crossing $100 added to concerns about inflation and tighter monetary conditions.

U.S. bond yields climbed to levels not seen in decades. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.36%, and the 30-year yield hit 5.73%, the highest since 2002. A $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction drew strong demand but cleared at the highest yield for that maturity since November 2000. Higher yields tend to pull capital away from riskier assets such as Bitcoin, and major equity markets also felt the pressure, with the S&P 500 falling 0.6% to 7,773 points after setting a record high a day earlier.

Federal Reserve minutes added to the cautious mood. Most Federal Open Market Committee members said they expect another interest rate hike before the end of the year. The central bank raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points in September, its first increase in more than three years. Despite the minutes, CME FedWatch data showed traders still assign about an 83% probability that rates will be left unchanged at the next meeting, up from 54% a month earlier.

Onchain data signaled fading demand. CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin open interest fell from about $28.8 billion to $26.0 billion since September 22, a decline of nearly 10%. The analytics firm said the drop points to limited appetite from both spot buyers and futures traders. CryptoQuant also flagged $69,500 as a key level because it represents the average cost basis for short-term Bitcoin holders. Some traders see potential support below the market, with analyst Ted Pillows noting large buy orders placed between $81,000 and $82,500 that could create a bounceback zone. Broader crypto markets also traded lower, with Ether, XRP, Dogecoin, Solana and Cardano all declining on the day.

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