Samsung Electronics slipped 2% to ₩264,500 on Thursday even after reporting a historic preliminary third-quarter profit, as a slight miss against the most optimistic forecasts combined with ETF rebalancing, options expiry, and the end of its buyback program to trigger a sell-the-news reaction.
The company guided for Q3 2026 operating profit of ₩107.4 trillion, up about 782% year over year and the first quarterly operating profit above ₩100 trillion for any tech company. Revenue was approximately ₩195 trillion, compared with ₩86.06 trillion a year earlier. However, pre-release consensus collected by FnGuide had projected operating profit of ₩108.13 trillion and revenue of ₩201.73 trillion. Top-end estimates near ₩108 trillion to ₩110 trillion were high enough that the record result still disappointed parts of the market.
The move lower came alongside foreign and institutional selling, while the broader KOSPI fell nearly 2%. Most chip and AI-related stocks also traded lower. Samsung's full Q3 report is due October 29, with a divisional breakdown expected to show how much profit came from memory versus mobile, display, and consumer electronics.
Demand for high-bandwidth memory used in AI systems drove the profit surge. AMD's chief executive visited Samsung's Seoul headquarters a day before the release, and the two companies discussed expanded AI chip collaboration, including potential HBM4 supply for next-generation accelerators. Josh Gilbert, an analyst at eToro, commented that Samsung delivered a record profit and still fell short of expectations, showing how demanding the AI trade has become. He also noted memory buyers are signing multiyear supply deals, giving Samsung better visibility into future demand.
The readthrough to memory peers was direct. Micron Technology reported record fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $54.23 billion and GAAP operating income of $43.75 billion, an 80.7% operating margin, while full-year revenue rose 256% to $133.19 billion. Samsung's result reinforced the pricing environment Micron described: Hana Securities estimated DRAM prices rose 15% and NAND prices climbed 18% quarter over quarter. SK Hynix is scheduled to report later this month, and a strong set of memory results from all three suppliers could confirm the memory supercycle thesis.
Analysts retain a Moderate Buy rating on Samsung, with an average price target of ₩440,000, implying roughly 66% upside from current levels. Still, the immediate reaction shows that record numbers alone were not enough to satisfy elevated AI-era expectations.
