Anthropic is preparing to open its books to prospective institutional investors, with third-quarter financial updates expected as the AI developer moves toward a potential IPO that could be among the largest in history. CNBC reported Tuesday that the release is planned ahead of an investor day in San Francisco on October 14, following earlier Bloomberg reporting. The company could target a valuation of around $2 trillion, with Bloomberg citing a range of $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion. That would surpass SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion debut valuation from July, making Anthropic’s listing one of the biggest ever.
Separately, Polymarket odds retrieved October 13 show traders pricing contradictory scenarios. A first-day valuation market assigns 27.1% to the $2 trillion–$2.25 trillion market-cap bracket, 24.5% to $1.75–$2 trillion, and 21% to $2.25–$2.5 trillion. A different bankruptcy contract implies a 21.5% chance Anthropic announces bankruptcy by December 31, 2029, 18.5% by end-2028, and 9.5% by end-2027. The IPO event had $1.54 million in total volume; the bankruptcy event had $1.73 million.
The tension reflects broader AI-sector scrutiny. A leaked prospectus cited by CNBC on October 7 reportedly projected 2025 revenues of $4.6 billion against a net loss of $42 billion, while one CNBC report valued Anthropic at about $150 billion, far below the $2 trillion target. The Information also reported that OpenAI’s annualized revenue was around $50 billion rather than the previously reported $70 billion, partly because partner cloud sales were accounted for differently, prompting investors to reassess growth expectations.
Execution risks remain front and center. Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan and Broadcom CEO Hock Tan have warned that capital availability and financing costs could become major constraints on AI expansion. Polymarket’s contracts are separate prediction markets, not confirmed IPO guidance or evidence of insolvency, but they illustrate how investors are simultaneously pricing exceptional first-day valuations and longer-term bankruptcy risk. The next concrete evidence will be whether Anthropic lists, what its public S-1 discloses, and how its first trading day closes.
