Standard Chartered has delayed its forecast for the stablecoin market to hit $2 trillion from 2028 to 2030, while keeping the overall target unchanged. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, said supply has stayed between $300 billion and $320 billion for the past twelve months and currently sits near $309 billion. He described the lack of supply growth as a cyclical slowdown tied to weakness in crypto markets. DefiLlama estimates supply at about $303.7 billion, including $184 billion in USDT and $73 billion in USDC, with Tether and Circle holding around 85% market share.
Despite stalled supply, usage is accelerating. Monthly onchain transfer volume reached a record $19 trillion in May, and the 2026 average is around $10 trillion per month, compared with $4 trillion in 2025. Stablecoin velocity doubled from 15 to 30 times per month. The gap between major tokens is wide: USDT velocity remains about 7, while USDC jumped from 45 to roughly 80. Kendrick said USDT is mostly used for dollar savings in emerging markets, while USDC is increasingly used for payments, financial transactions and transfers between AI agents.
Data from Allium shows only $4 trillion of $85 trillion transferred between January and August 2026 represented economic activity. Trade made up 69% and payments 13%, with payments reaching at least $401 billion and growing 42%. Visa’s research measured quarterly velocity at 13.56 in late 2025, but only 0.08 for retail-sized transfers below $250, representing less than 1% of activity. The bank also warned that the U.S. GENIUS Act, expected in January 2027, could bring more bank-backed and multi-issuer stablecoins, potentially eroding USDT’s position. Kendrick named Open USD, M^0 and banking network A+ as challengers and said yield capture will help determine how the sector plays out.
Standard Chartered’s view also ties stablecoin reserves to Treasury demand. Allium estimates stablecoin growth could add $170 billion in new Treasury demand, while the Bank for International Settlements has linked stablecoin inflows to lower short-term yields.
